A questionnaire elicitation of surgeons' belief about learning within a surgical trial

PMID: 23145113 [PubMed - indexed for MEDLINE] PMCID: PMC3493499 Free PMC ArticlePeer reviewedPublisher PD

Simulation-based Bayesian inference for epidemic models

This is the author pre-print version. The final version is available from the publisher via the DOI in this record.A powerful and flexible method for fitting dynamic models to missing and censored data is to use the Bayesian paradigm via data-augmented Markov chain Monte Carlo (DA-MCMC). This samples from the joint posterior for the parameters and missing data, but requires high memory overheads for large-scale systems. In addition, designing efficient proposal distributions for the missing data is typically challenging. Pseudo-marginal methods instead integrate across the missing data using a Monte Carlo estimate for the likelihood, generated from multiple independent simulations from the model. These techniques can avoid the high memory requirements of DA-MCMC, and under certain conditions produce the exact marginal posterior distribution for parameters. A novel method is presented for implementing importance sampling for dynamic epidemic models, by conditioning the simulations on sets of validity criteria (based on the model structure) as well as the observed data. The flexibility of these techniques is illustrated using both removal time and final size data from an outbreak of smallpox. It is shown that these approaches can circumvent the need for reversible-jump MCMC, and can allow inference in situations where DA-MCMC is impossible due to computationally infeasible likelihoods. © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.T. J. M. was in part supported by Department for the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs/Higher Education Funding Council of England, grant number VT0105 and BBSRC grant (BB/I012192/1). J. V. R was in part supported by Australian Research Council’s Discovery Projects funding scheme (project number DP110102893). R. D. was in part supported by Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council (NSERC) of Canada’s Discovery Grants Program. A. R. C. was in part supported by National Medical Research Council (NMRC/HINIR/005/2009) and NUS Initiative to Improve Health in Asia. The authors would like to thank Andrew Conlan and Theo Kypraios for useful discussions

Using the theory of planned behaviour as a process evaluation tool in randomised trials of knowledge translation strategies : A case study from UK primary care

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Identification of Ceruloplasmin as a Gene that Affects Susceptibility to Glomerulonephritis Through Macrophage Function

Crescentic glomerulonephritis (Crgn) is a complex disorder where macrophage activity and infiltration are significant effector causes. In previous linkage studies using the uniquely susceptible Wistar Kyoto (WKY) rat strain, we have identified multiple crescentic glomerulonephritis QTL (Crgn) and positionally cloned genes underlying Crgn1 and Crgn2, which accounted for 40% of total variance in glomerular inflammation. Here, we have generated a backcross (BC) population (n = 166) where Crgn1 and Crgn2 were genetically fixed and found significant linkage to glomerular crescents on chromosome 2 (Crgn8, LOD = 3.8). Fine mapping analysis by integration with genome-wide expression QTLs (eQTLs) from the same BC population identified ceruloplasmin (Cp) as a positional eQTL in macrophages but not in serum. Liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry confirmed Cp as a protein QTL in rat macrophages. WKY macrophages overexpress Cp and its downregulation by RNA interference decreases markers of glomerular proinflammatory macrophage activation. Similarly, short incubation with Cp results in a strain-dependent macrophage polarization in the rat. These results suggest that genetically determined Cp levels can alter susceptibility to Crgn through macrophage function and propose a new role for Cp in early macrophage activation

Impaired perception of facial motion in autism spectrum disorder

Copyright: © 2014 O’Brien et al. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.This article has been made available through the Brunel Open Access Publishing Fund.Facial motion is a special type of biological motion that transmits cues for socio-emotional communication and enables the discrimination of properties such as gender and identity. We used animated average faces to examine the ability of adults with autism spectrum disorders (ASD) to perceive facial motion. Participants completed increasingly difficult tasks involving the discrimination of (1) sequences of facial motion, (2) the identity of individuals based on their facial motion and (3) the gender of individuals. Stimuli were presented in both upright and upside-down orientations to test for the difference in inversion effects often found when comparing ASD with controls in face perception. The ASD group’s performance was impaired relative to the control group in all three tasks and unlike the control group, the individuals with ASD failed to show an inversion effect. These results point to a deficit in facial biological motion processing in people with autism, which we suggest is linked to deficits in lower level motion processing we have previously reported

Smart homes and their users:a systematic analysis and key challenges

Published research on smart homes and their users is growing exponentially, yet a clear understanding of who these users are and how they might use smart home technologies is missing from a field being overwhelmingly pushed by technology developers. Through a systematic analysis of peer-reviewed literature on smart homes and their users, this paper takes stock of the dominant research themes and the linkages and disconnects between them. Key findings within each of nine themes are analysed, grouped into three: (1) views of the smart home-functional, instrumental, socio-technical; (2) users and the use of the smart home-prospective users, interactions and decisions, using technologies in the home; and (3) challenges for realising the smart home-hardware and software, design, domestication. These themes are integrated into an organising framework for future research that identifies the presence or absence of cross-cutting relationships between different understandings of smart homes and their users. The usefulness of the organising framework is illustrated in relation to two major concerns-privacy and control-that have been narrowly interpreted to date, precluding deeper insights and potential solutions. Future research on smart homes and their users can benefit by exploring and developing cross-cutting relationships between the research themes identified

Long-term mortality prediction after operations for type A ascending aortic dissection

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>There are few long-term mortality prediction studies after acute aortic dissection (AAD) Type A and none were performed using new models such as neural networks (NN) or support vector machines (SVM) which may show a higher discriminatory potency than standard multivariable models.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We used 32 risk factors identified by Literature search and previously assessed in short-term outcome investigations. Models were trained (50%) and validated (50%) on 2 random samples from a consecutive 235-patient cohort. NN were run only on patients with complete data for all included variables (N = 211); SVM on the overall group. Discrimination was assessed by receiver operating characteristic area under the curve (AUC) and Gini's coefficients along with classification performance.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>There were 84 deaths (36%) occurring at 564 ± 48 days (95%CI from 470 to 658 days). Patients with complete variables had a slightly lower death rate (60 of 211, 28%). NN classified 44 of 60 (73%) dead patients and 147 of 151 (97%) long-term survivors using 5 covariates: immediate post-operative chronic renal failure, circulatory arrest time, the type of surgery on ascending aorta plus hemi-arch, extracorporeal circulation time and the presence of Marfan habitus. Global accuracies of training and validation NN were excellent with AUC respectively 0.871 and 0.870 but classification errors were high among patients who died. Training SVM, using a larger number of covariates, showed no false negative or false positive cases among 118 randomly selected patients (error = 0%, AUC 1.0) whereas validation SVM, among 117 patients, provided 5 false negative and 11 false positive cases (error = 22%, AUC 0.821, p < 0.01 versus NN results). An html file was produced to adopt and manipulate the selected parameters for practical predictive purposes.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Both NN and SVM accurately selected a few operative and immediate post-operative factors and the Marfan habitus as long-term mortality predictors in AAD Type A. Although these factors were not new per se, their combination may be used in practice to index death risk post-operatively with good accuracy.</p